The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:创业研究)
-
在未来,将会有越来越多人愿意为获取优质内容及体验而支付会员服务费用,平台发展会员的能力将成为促使其良性发展的关键。...[详细]
-
Gate.io Launchpool 4月高频上线23个项目,主流币质押撬动高收益
而从估值的角度来看,新挂牌的影视公司中最高的,要数和力辰光。...[详细]
-
“张总、李总都来了,都是给面子,敬酒就都得敬到,这屋敬完了敬那屋。...[详细]
-
通过微信指数可以了解某个关键词分别在7日、30日、90日的流行度表现,通过其指数波动情况,我们甚至可以预判出某个关键词在未来近阶段的表现情况。...[详细]
-
” 这之后不久,美国国家安全局、联邦调查局诸多机构很快找来寻求合作,Palantir在情报系统频频立功,2011年,成功地协助美国政府击毙了本拉登。...[详细]
-
” 也就是说,如果峻岭能源开不到守法证明,只能等到2019年才能向证监会递交IPO申报材料。...[详细]
-
张旭豪:地方你定的,好像是个破破烂烂的地方。...[详细]
-
1.做分析 购物车放弃率有可能不只是商品价格或者由于消费意识不够造成的...[详细]
-
但大体上可以判断出,其微信指数是基于‘搜索词’在微信的流行度情况综合各方面给出的数值。...[详细]
-
6、为什么显示与自己关键词无关的搜索? 出现这种情况,这可能是由于ASM投放师启用了默认的搜索匹配类型。...[详细]